As said in my blog post yesterday, today we saw a good rally of US Dollar from 62.00(Daylow) to 62.3475 (Dayhigh) due to month end demand and also due to fall of Nifty and BSE Sensex.
Anyhow profit taking by Bulls brought back the pair to 62.1875 while closing. They failed to break nearest resistance of 62.3650. Today’s opening was at 62.19. Then it went upto 62 and started a bullish rally. Note that the pair came back and closed just below today’s opening.
Out of the figures, 62.30 & 62.36 which were yet to hit as of yesterday’s blog post, we saw today 62.30 hitting.
My trade today:-
Exited from my 61.91 short position. Holding 63CE with an average value of Rs.180 assuming that the Down trend is over. But I am a bit reluctant to advise for holding Long position until the closing is above 62.31
Williams %R indicator shows that the pair is well in Buy zone. But Ichimoku Daily chart doesn’t show any sign of changing long trend. It could be a short-term Bullish trend due to domestic demand. If Nifty and Sensex continues its fall and EURO shooting up against USD, we can see INR will also become weak. In that case, 61.60 which is the low as of now will be Month low. In contrary, if Nifty is going bullish again and moving to 9300 levels and EUR/USD falling to 1.10/1.07 levels, we can see 62.3475 as the month high. Hope the scenario will be more clear next week.
Have a nice weekend..