We saw a very vibrant today as the US Dollar rallied from 61.7350 (Daylow) to 62.1975 (Dayhigh) before closing at 62.1825
The pair opened at 61.77, just above yesterday’s closing LTP of 61.7450. As today was NIFTY F&O expiry day, most traders expect NIFTY to be a bit down due to profit taking. Before closing time, Nifty rebounded to decent level at 8952.35 against yesterday’s closing of 8914.30
The rally of US Dollar obviously makes sense because of F&O expiry and demand from foreign funds for withdrawing their profits. Also there is a chance for oil companies and importers to buy more dollars as tomorrow is 30th Jan and Friday too.
Technically, I doubt today’s breakout may extend upto 62.63 levels. But what confuses me is that Ichimoku cloud is still above the price on a Daily chart which shows a downtrend. Breaking of price through the cloud will only prove that the Up-trend is strong. Until that, I would like to believe it as a temporary rebound, while the main trend is Down. But a closing above 62.31 will certainly put pressure on me to exit from my Short position. Also traders should watch Nifty closely because a heavy profit taking in Nifty will result in a costlier US Dollar. Note that both Nifty and INR are in overbought zone. So this factor may help US Dollar to trade beyond 62.63 levels.
My trade today:-
Bought 62.50CE @ Rs.1650 and exit @ Rs.2200. [Note it went upto Rs.3000 but I was not around my computer and my set target of Rs.2200 was hit]
Still holding Short position @ 61.91 with a Stoploss of 62.31
I gave a few figures that were yet to hit in my yesterday’s blog post. Among them, all figures except two figures (62.30 & 62.36) hit today.